All Star Market Timing

Stock market timing with Elliott/Taucher/Gann/Cadbury methods and astro-finance outlook on the financial markets and is dedicated to the All Stars of Market Timing – R. N. Elliott, W. D. Gann, Frank Taucher and Chris Cadbury and many others that have influenced my market methodology.

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  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 19, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX appears to be in a post-Fed Day slam down that should continue through quad witching expiration. We did recommend raising cash for this event and believe that the worst will be over by Tuesday. At that point, we could see the SPX below 6500 in our 3/24-3/25 turn window. and the PM sector at a tradable low. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the market swoon this week. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of a post-expiration SPX swoon. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike into early next week – that could coincide with a crude oil spike larger that the market is comfortable with. We could see a plunge down through the 200-dma into expiration. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into the New Moon Timing Window on THursday – we still hold a core position  in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 17, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX gave us a second rally say in a row into the 3/17-3/19 New Moon Timing Day. However, we are concerned about a post-Fed Day slam down in the SPX and are being very defensive. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for a market swoon this week. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of a post-Fed plunge tomorrow. Accordingly, we are raised cash and will watch the market closely on Fed Wednesday.  It is important to keep powder dry here in this market with all the risk factors present. We could see a plunge down through the 200-dma after Powell’s address tomorrow. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into the New Moon Timing Window today – we still hold a core position  in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.

  • The Weekly JDV Market Timer – March 15, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and NDX continued to correct down into Friday. The crude oil trade continues to drive the stock market. The SPX looks like it wants to test its 200-dma at 6600 this week around our Wednesday/Thursday turn window which includes the New Moon on 3/18 and a Fed Day.  Accordingly, we are raising more cash until the stock market finds more clarity with the US/Iran war – it is important to keep powder dry here in this market. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could still see a test of this average for multiple stock market indices this week. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the Full Moon and were sold down last week as the PM stocks have began to underperform the metals – we still hold a core position in in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 12, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The price of crude oil rallied today and pressured the SPX down into the close with the VIX making its high for the day at the bell. The SPX looks like it wants to test its 200-dma at 6600. Crude oil prices are driving global markets and the US stock market may have quietly entered a bear market in February. Accordingly, we are raising more cash until the stock market finds more clarity with this war. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could still see a test of this average for the SPX into early next week. If crude oil remains in the $80s into May, that would still benefit the integrated oils (XOM, CVX and COP). The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the longevity of this stock bull market.  Silver and gold peaked on the Full Moon and have been drifting down  this week as the PM stocks have begun to underperform the metals – we still hold a core position in in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/9-3/10.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 11, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: We were looking for the 3/9-3/10 turn window to spark a rally in the SPX and the PMs but so far we are disappointed. In our view, the uncertain timeframe of the US/Iran war makes it difficult to price it into the stock market and this is making the SPX hard to trade. Accordingly, we are raising more cash until the stock market has more clarity with the war. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could still see a test of this average for the SPX into next week. If crude oil remains in the $80s into May, that would still benefit the integrated oils (XOM, CVX and COP). The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the longevity of this stock bull market.  Silver and gold spiked into early Tuesday before selling off into Wednesday – we still hold a core position in in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/9-3/10.

  • The Weekly JDV Market Timer – March 8, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: After a volatile week, where crude oil prices drove the market, the SPX closed weak on Friday which allows a sharp correction down into Monday/Tuesday which our major turn window for the coming week. With the 200-dma so close below on the SPX, NDX and DJIA indices, one could see a test of this average for the SPX on Monday/Tuesday. On Sunday night, crude oil is testing $119.48 which should give us a gap-down open for the SPX on Monday. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this makes us cautious on the longevity of this stock bull market.  Silver and gold were pressured down into Friday and could also spike down into early Monday before a strong bounce. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/06 close: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 10% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 10% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/6 to include: 80% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/9-3/10.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – March 2, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: We have been defensive on the SPX for the last few weeks and have emphasized holding XOM, CVX, COP and the XLE.   On Monday, the market sold off early but came back late in a “sigh of relief”, but then the closing of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran have allowed for a deeper correction in the SPX. We could see a quick retracement down to SPX 6200 into early March. It is possible that we could be seeing a 17-year bull market top from 3/6/09, but this could also be just a bull market correction. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market.  After getting a big win by being heavy XOM/CVX/SLB in Jan/Feb we are raising more cash and waiting to see how the SPX navigates the 3/3 Full Moon/lunar eclipse which looks negative at the current time. Silver and gold may have finished a large B-Wave test of their 1/29 highs on Sunday night. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 2/28 close: 40% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 15% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 2/28 to include: 80% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 3/02-3/04, the 3/3 Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – February 26, 2026

    All Star Market Timing

    By mortallyglorious755bb0b3cd on February 26, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: Our belief is that the stock market indices are making a rounded top in Q1 of 2026 and we are turning defensive this week because of the approaching high-energy turn window on 2/28-3/02 which has the potential to provide an important turn for many markets.  For the stock indices, the setup we are looking for is a new, divergent ATH in the NYSE Composite, IWM or DJIA going into Monday, 3/2 followed by a sharp reversal down after the 3/3 Full Moon/lunar eclipse. If this setup triggers, we could see a quick retracement down to SPX 6600 into early March. It is possible that we could be seeing a 17-year bull market top from 3/6/09. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market.  After getting a big win by being heavy XOM/CVX/SLB in Jan/Feb we are raising more cash and waiting to see how the SPX navigates the 3/3 Full Moon/lunar eclipse. Geo-political fears of another US strike on Iran over the “nuclear deal” will keep the market on edge this week. Silver made a lower low early 2/17 at $71.82 and then reversed up impulsively – this could be the start of a B-Wave test of the 1/29 ATH at $121. The rotation of the XLE into a market leadership position favored our oil stocks: XOM/CVX/COP/SLB in February, but we are turning cautious here and expect a near-term correction. Sector selection will be key in 2026, and we do favor an important intermediate peak in the SPX in Q1 and that could happen close to the 2/28-3/02 planetary stellium early next week. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 2/20 close: 30% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 2/20 to include: 70% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 2/28-3/02, the planetary stellium and the 3/3 Full Moon/lunar eclipse.

  • The Weekly JDV Market Timer – February 22, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: Our belief is that the stock market indices are making a rounded-top top in Q1 of 2026 and we are turning defensive this week by raising more cash. Going into our 2/27-3/2 turn window, it is still possible for a new divergent ATH from the DJIA or IWM,  but we are looking for a move down to SPX 6600 or so by early March. After getting a big win by being heavy XOM/CVX/SLB in Jan/Feb we are raising more cash and waiting to see how the SPX trades into early March. Geo-political fears of another US strike on Iran over the “nuclear deal” will keep the market on edge this week. In the bigger picture, the SPX may still be making a “rounding top” here with the late-cycle sector XLF topping on I/6/26 and the late-cycle sector XLE rotating into leadership on 2/4/26. Silver made a lower low early 2/17 at $71.82 and then reversed up impulsively – this could be the start of a B-Wave test of the 1/29 ATH at $121. The rotation of the XLE into a market leadership position favored our oil stocks: XOM/CVX/COP/SLB in February, but we are turning cautious here and expect a near-term correction. Sector selection will be key in 2026, and we do favor an important intermediate peak in the SPX in Q1 and that could happen close to the 2/28-3/02 planetary stellium. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 2/20 close: 30% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 2/20 to include: 70% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 2/28-3/02, the planetary stellium.

  • The Daily JDV Market Timer – February 19, 2026

    Folks,

    Market Observations for the Week: The SPX sold off into early Tuesday’s New Moon/solar eclipse and then rebounded. The NYSE composite made a new ATH on 2/12 and also corrected into the New Moon on Tuesday. We were looking at the 2/17-2/18 New Moon/ solar eclipse as being a potential turn for both the SPX and gold/silver and so far the reversal higher lacks conviction.  Geo-political fears of  another US strike on Iran gave the market a mild selloff on Thursday as crude oil spiked higher. However, in the bigger picture, the SPX may still be making a “rounding top” here with the XLF topping on I/6/26 and the XLE rotating into leadership on 2/4/26. Silver made  a lower low early Tuesday at $71.82 and then reversed up impulsively, however, the volume lacks conviction. The rotation of the XLE into a market leadership position favored our oil stocks: XOM/CVX/COP/SLB last week but we are turning cautious and expect a near-term correction. Stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we do favor an important intermediate peak in the SPX in Q1 and that could happen close to the 2/28 planetary stellium. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 1/30 close: 20% cash, 0% SLV, 10% DIA, 10% MOO, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 2/6 to include: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 10% SILJ, 0% Barrick, 20% DIA, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB.

    TURNING POINT DAY

    Our turn window for this week is 2/17-2/18, the New Moon/solar eclipse.