All Star Market Timing

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and rallied to new ATHS as the huge rally from 3/30 rolled on. The market believes that the USA/Iran war will be favorably settled soon – we do not believe this, but do not what to fight this move. The easy money in this rally has been made, but the trend should remain higher despite a potential pullback after the 4/17 New Moon. We do believe that we are in a Commodity Supercycle and consequently favor commodity stocks in our portfolio. We also believe that oil prices could remain elevated into the fall and bring about higher inflation.  Despite the market exuberance, our view is that Iran could drag out talks far longer than the stock market expects and that would leave crude oil trading at high levels for several months that could be inflationary into year end. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market, but the SPX reaffirmed that it is still in a bull market today. It is still important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Even though silver and gold topped in the 4/1-4/2 Full Moon – we still hold a core position in the junior miners – the GDX has lagged the SPX in the recent rally which has favored the MAG-7 stocks. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural).  We did own TQQQ and INTC last week in our trading account but sold them early in the rally. Our current investment positions were updated on the 4/10 close: 40% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 10% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 4/13 to include: 45% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 10% Barrick, 10% SLB, 25% XOM/CVX/COP.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is the 4/17-4/20 New moon Timing Window.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX rallied into the weekend on the two-week ceasefire with Iran, but the break down in talks over the weekend and Trump’s threat to blockade the straits of Hormuz could give us a gap-down open on Monday. We did add some SPXS and VIX to hedge the “hopeful SPX rally” into the weekend. Our view is that Iran could drag out talks far longer than the stock market expects and that would leave crude oil trading at high levels for several months that could be inflationary into year end. News on the US/Iran war is calling the shots on global markets and the SPX could still test lows going into 4/20-4/21, which is na important turn window in our work. Our view is that the process of negotiations with Iran will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation over the intermediate term. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Even though silver and gold topped in the 4/1-4/2 Full Moon – we still hold a core position in the junior miners –the GDX showed relative strength against the SPX last week. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 4/10 close: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 10% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 4/10 to include: 55% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 0% Barrick, 10% SLB, 25% XOM/CVX/COP.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 4/13-4/14.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX made a high for the week into the 4/1-4/2 Full Moon and then pulled back into Thursday.  On Thursday’s close we saw signs of extreme fear in our option indicators. With Trump’s over-the-top rhetoric over the weekend against Iran, we are looking for a potential trading low early Monday in the SPX and GDX. News on the US/Iran war is calling the shots on global markets and the SPX could still test lows going into 4/20-4/21. The US/Iran war is continuing and no cease fire is in sight. The price of crude is testing  $115 Sunday evening.  Our view is that the process of a ceasefire will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation in the short term. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish. However, Trump’s vulgar rhetorical blast against Iran may be telegraphing another TACO moment (turnaround) moment for the global financial markets early this week. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold bounced into the 4/1-4/2 Full Moon – we still hold a core position in the junior miners –the GDX is showing relative strength against the SPX here. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 4/2 close: 50% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 10% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 4/2 to include: 45% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 10% Barrick, 10% SLB, 25% XOM/CVX/COP.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 4/6-4/7.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX bounced for a few days from late Monday into Wednesday, but the RALLY IS CORRECTIVE. Today’s Full Moon is a big turn window in our work and we are looking for lower lows in the SPX into the next week. We saw many money managers on CNBC dumping CVX and XOM and rebuying the Mag-7 stocks – WRONG. The US/Iran war is continuing and no cease fire is in sight. The price of crude is rebounding after Trump’s address Wednesday night that was lacking in any new specifics on the war.  Our view is that the process of a ceasefire will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation in the short term. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of another SPX down leg into the Easter holiday weekend before the next oversold bounce. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into 3/23 – we still hold a core position in the junior miners – we are looking for the GDX to show relative strength against the SPX. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 4/1 close: 45% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 20% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 4/1 to include: 65% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 10% SLB, 25% XOM/CVX/COP.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 4/1-4/2.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX was hit hard again on Friday and looks to open down again early Monday. The price of crude is driving the markets as the US/IRAN feel each other out on a dialogue of talking points.  Our view is that the process of a ceasefire will take some time and markets will begin to price in more inflation in the short term – the gold stocks actually rallied on Friday, and gold and silver actually held their 3/23 lows while the SPX kept going lower into Friday. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of another SPX down leg into the 4/1 Full Moon before the next oversold bounce. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into 3/23 – we still hold a core position in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/27 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/27 to include: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 10% CDE, 10% Barrick, 10% SLB, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 4/1-4/2.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX and the PM sector got hit hard on the rise in crude oil prices and the news from Iran. The bounce in the SPX and PM sector from Monday is being reversed down with lower lows ahead. AS we predicted Tuesday night, we saw the SPX trading under 6500 and probably heading to 6200. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the broad market which may have entered a bear market in February. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of another more SPX down before the next oversold bounce next week. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike above 40 and we haven’t seen that yet. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into Sunday evening – we still hold a core position in the junior miners which we have tried to hedge with IWM puts. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/24 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 10% SLB, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 3/23-3/24.

Folks,

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX appears to be in a post-Fed Day slam down that should continue through quad witching expiration. We did recommend raising cash for this event and believe that the worst will be over by Tuesday. At that point, we could see the SPX below 6500 in our 3/24-3/25 turn window. and the PM sector at a tradable low. Signs of credit risk, illiquidity, and the obvious geo-political risk are warning signs here for the market swoon this week. The SPX took out the December low and that is bearish, and we are wary of a post-expiration SPX swoon. It is important to keep powder dry until we see a larger VIX spike into early next week – that could coincide with a crude oil spike larger that the market is comfortable with. We could see a plunge down through the 200-dma into expiration. The leadership of the SPX has shifted from the XLF(financials) which topped in January to the XLE(energy stocks) which are both late-cycle sectors in a topping bull market – this still makes us cautious on the future longevity of this stock bull market. Silver and gold peaked on the 3/3 Full Moon and were then sold down into the New Moon Timing Window on THursday – we still hold a core position  in the junior miners. The XLE is in a seasonally strong period(Jan-Apr) and is still favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 3/10 close: 60% cash, 0% SLV, 0% DIA, 10% MOO, 5% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 5% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 3/10 to include: 90% cash, 0% SLV, 0% CDE, 0% Barrick, 0% DIA, 10% XOM/CVX/COP.

TURNING POINT DAY

Our turn window for this week is 3/18-3/19.