Folks,
Market Observations for the Week: The stock indices were mixed on Monday – the IWM declined on Monday but the SPX rallied. Usually on a Fed week, the SPX makes a high on Monday and then declines into Wednesday. Uncertainty over several issues from the pending Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs to the vagaries of Trump’s new foreign policy initiatives are plaguing US capital markets. The close of our TRIN-5 indicator above 6.0 last week cautions us against getting too bearish here on the SPX. Still, holding a sizable cash position in this market is favored. Geo-political news from Iran and the big winter storm impacting the US has us watching the oil sector for some long setups in our favored energy stocks: XOM/CVX/COP/SLB. Gold broke above $5100 on Monday before correcting while silver broke above $117 before correcting. Stock selection will be key going into 2026, and we do favor an important intermediate peak in the SPX by May 2026. The XLE is coming into a seasonally strong period and is favored in our work for 2026 – we also like the MOO ETF(agricultural). Our current investment positions were updated on the 1/23 close: 15% cash, 5% SLV, 15% DIA, 5% MOO, 25% GDXJ/SILJ/XLE, 15% XOM/CVX/SLB and 20% physical gold/silver/platinum. We have a 25% overall allocation to our short-term trading account which was last updated on 1/25 to include: 15% cash, 15% SLV, 20% SILJ, 10% Barrick, 20% DIA, 20% XOM/SLB.
TURNING POINT DAY
Our turn window for this week is 1/26-1/27, the Tuesday Comex option expiration and Fed Wednesday.